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Ledger of Finite Probabilities

—

by

Dale
in

From: Quantifianism

Description: A miniature version of Actuarex’s Ledger of Fate, this tome is bound in metallic covers etched with mathematical symbols. The pages seem to fill themselves with equations and probabilities as the user observes them.

Magical Properties:

  • Event Cataloging: The ledger records the probabilities of significant events around the user, offering a tactical advantage in understanding one’s surroundings.
  • Selective Outcome: Once per day, the user can choose one event recorded in the ledger to manipulate its probability slightly in their favor.

Restrictions: The ledger does not work on events with zero probability, and tampering with probabilities too often could attract unwanted attention from Actuarex’s clergy, who monitor the balance of probabilities in the world.

Lore of the Ledger of Finite Probabilities: This sacred tome is believed to be a smaller, earthly replication of Actuarex’s great Ledger of Fate. It is said that the first Ledger of Finite Probabilities was crafted in the hidden chambers of Actuarex’s high temple, scribed by the deity’s most devoted clergy. The clergy, deeply in tune with the flow of probabilities, devised this artifact as a means to share Actuarex’s wisdom with their most devoted followers. The Ledger’s metallic cover is painstakingly etched with complex mathematical symbols that capture the very essence of probabilities and possibilities.

Over time, several such ledgers have found their way into the hands of scholars, tacticians, and even warlords who realize the potent advantage of foreknowledge. It is typically sold in clandestine markets or sometimes as an offering to the most devout of Actuarex’s followers. The rarity and power of this tome make it a highly coveted item, often commanding a price that only the wealthy or the desperate are willing to pay.

Level One Stats and Requirements

  • Cost: 500 Gold Pieces
  • Requirements: Must be proficient in Arcana or a similar knowledge-based skill
  • Tags: Arcane, Probability, Tactical, Probability Ledger, Fate Calculation, Tactical Foreknowledge, Arcane Prediction, Mathematical Insight, Temporal Analysis, Statistical Advantage, Event Manipulation, Actuarial Balance, Quantum Possibility

Specific Skills

  • Event Cataloging: Grants +2 to Insight and Perception checks that are used to gauge the likelihood of specific events.
  • Selective Outcome: Once per day, add a +1 modifier to any one d20 roll, after seeing the roll but before knowing the outcome.

Usage and Restrictions: The Ledger is commonly used in environments where planning and foresight are crucial. This might include battlefields, diplomatic negotiations, or during elaborate heists. Its power does not extend to events with zero probability, meaning it cannot make the impossible happen. Also, the user must exercise caution as excessive tampering with probabilities may attract the attention of Actuarex’s clergy, who are always vigilant about maintaining the equilibrium of probabilities in the world.

Combat Applications: In combat, the Ledger can offer invaluable insights. A commander could use it to anticipate an enemy’s most likely moves, or a mage could employ it to calculate the optimal moment for casting a game-changing spell. The “Selective Outcome” property could be the difference between a missed attack and a critical hit, providing a slight but significant alteration to the course of battle.

Perception of the Five Senses

  • Sight
    • What is Perceived: Intricate mathematical symbols etched on the metallic cover; pages that seem to magically fill with equations and probabilities.
    • Description: The tome appears ancient yet well-preserved, with symbols that seem to shift and change subtly.
    • Positives: The changing nature of the symbols and equations can be mesmerizing and indicative of its magical nature.
    • Negatives: The shifting symbols might be distracting or disorienting for those who are not attuned to the ledger.
  • Touch
    • What is Perceived: Metallic, cool, and smooth cover; crisp pages that feel almost otherworldly.
    • Description: The cover and pages offer a tactile experience that feels finely crafted.
    • Positives: The texture and temperature of the ledger might help ground the user, enhancing focus.
    • Negatives: The cool metallic surface could become uncomfortable in extremely cold environments.
  • Smell
    • What is Perceived: A faint smell of ozone mixed with the scent of old parchment.
    • Description: The smell is subtle but noticeable, especially when the ledger is open.
    • Positives: The unique scent might serve as a comforting or focusing stimulus for the user.
    • Negatives: Individuals with a heightened sense of smell may find the ozone aroma off-putting.
  • Sound
    • What is Perceived: A soft hum or whispering sound when the pages turn, as if whispering probabilities into the user’s ear.
    • Description: The sound is barely audible but distinct, heard only by the user.
    • Positives: The sound can be comforting or even enlightening, as it may aid in concentration.
    • Negatives: If the user is in a situation requiring utmost silence, the sound, however soft, could be a liability.
  • Taste
    • What is Perceived: Not applicable, as the ledger is not meant to be tasted.

Extra-Sensory Perceptions

  • Magical Aura Perception
    • What is Perceived: A fluctuating aura that seems to cycle through different shades, indicative of its probabilistic nature.
    • Description: The aura is complex, changing, and seems to be mathematically patterned.
    • Positives: The fluctuating aura can serve as an extra confirmation of the ledger’s authenticity and power.
    • Negatives: Those sensitive to magical auras may find the ever-changing nature unsettling or hard to interpret.
  • Temporal Awareness
    • What is Perceived: A subtle sensation of being slightly out of sync with time, as if perceiving events a fraction of a second before they occur.
    • Description: This sense is almost indescribable but becomes more noticeable the more the ledger is used.
    • Positives: May enhance reaction time or decision-making.
    • Negatives: The feeling might be disorienting or unsettling until the user becomes accustomed to it.

Crafting Recipe for the Ledger of Finite Probabilities

  • Materials Needed
    • One sheet of Mythril Alloy (for the cover)
    • Ten sheets of Eldritch Parchment (for the pages)
    • One vial of Probability Ink (for writing and etching)
    • Two small Arcane Crystals (for enchantments)
    • Two ounces of Temporal Dust (for imbuing)
    • One yard of Astral Silk (for binding)
    • Four Elemental Runestones (Earth, Air, Fire, Water)
  • Tools Required
    • Arcane Forge or Alchemist’s Lab
    • Enchanting Rod
    • Rune Etching Knife
    • Astral Loom
    • Precision Scale
    • Alchemy Apparatus for mixing
  • Skill Requirements
    • Arcana proficiency of level 10 or higher
    • Enchanting proficiency of level 8 or higher
    • Alchemy proficiency of level 7 or higher
  • Crafting Steps
    • Cover Creation
      • Using the Arcane Forge, meld the sheet of Mythril Alloy into a book cover size.
      • Etch the required mathematical symbols onto the cover using the Rune Etching Knife and Probability Ink.
    • Page Preparation
      • Use the Eldritch Parchment and cut it into pages that will fit into the cover.
      • Treat each page with a dusting of Temporal Dust using the Alchemy Apparatus.
    • Inscription and Imbuing
      • Imbue the Arcane Crystals with each of the Elemental Runestones.
      • Use the Enchanting Rod to transfer the imbued power onto each page.
    • Binding
      • Take the Astral Silk and weave it through the Astral Loom to create the bookbinding thread.
      • Bind the prepared pages to the Mythril Alloy cover.
    • Final Enchantment
      • Place the almost-complete ledger on the Precision Scale and add the remaining Temporal Dust.
      • Perform a final incantation to activate the ledger’s magical properties.
    • Quality Check
      • Use your Arcana, Alchemy, and Enchanting skills to inspect the ledger for any imperfections or instability in the magical constructs.
    • Sealing
      • Complete the crafting by sealing the ledger using the Rune Etching Knife and the remaining Probability Ink, thus preventing any unintended magical discharge.

The Ledger of Finite Probabilities is now ready for use or distribution. Due to the complexity of this crafting process, it is advised that only those with advanced skill levels attempt this task.

The Chronicle of the Ledger of Finite Probabilities

In the time before the stars found their places, Actuarex, the Deity of Calculation and Fate, pondered upon the immeasurable expanse of possible futures. The world was young, and its path untrod. Actuarex felt the weight of the universe’s numerous probabilities like a tapestry too vast to unfurl. Desiring to bring a semblance of order to the chaotic potentials, Actuarex crafted the Ledger of Fate, a tome so immense that it contained all possible outcomes for all beings.

Yet Actuarex knew that the Ledger of Fate was too perilous for mortal hands, as it could unravel the fabric of existence itself. In a moment of providence, Actuarex then conceived the Ledger of Finite Probabilities—a miniature, lesser version that could navigate mortals through the sea of probabilities without steering the universe off course.

The Ledger of Finite Probabilities was designed to be discovered by one who could respect its abilities. And so it was that the sage and scholar, Eryndor, stumbled upon the ledger while lost in a labyrinth of forgotten lore. The Ledger revealed itself to him, its pages teeming with numbers and equations that churned like the currents of destiny.

Upon his return, Eryndor consulted the Ledger to avert catastrophes and bring prosperity to his city-state. Though successful, the sage soon became obsessed with altering probabilities in his favor, heedless of Actuarex’s celestial balance. The Ledger’s equations darkened, and its pages began to writhe in dissonance. Sensing the imbalance, Actuarex’s clergy intervened, taking away the ledger from Eryndor and hiding it in a place concealed by multidimensional wards.

In the epochs that followed, many have sought the Ledger of Finite Probabilities, drawn by the allure of reshaping their fate. Few have succeeded in laying hands upon it, and fewer still have wielded it wisely. The Ledger remains elusive, promising dominion over destiny to those capable of respecting its limitations.

Moral of the Story: Even the most profound understanding of fate must be tempered with humility; for when one seeks to dominate probabilities, they risk not only their destiny but the very fabric of reality.

Suggested conversion to other systems:

Call of Cthulhu

  • Type: Tome
  • Stats: Adds +15 to Occult or +10 to Cthulhu Mythos Skill
  • Restrictions: Must make a Sanity check upon first use
  • Description: Provides clues on the most probable outcome of certain events, once per day.

Dungeons & Dragons 5e

  • Type: Wondrous Item (Legendary)
  • Requirements: Attunement
  • Stats: Advantage on Wisdom (Insight) and Intelligence (Investigation) checks
  • Abilities: Once per day, can cast the Divination spell without using spell slots.

Knave

  • Type: Arcane Book
  • Rarity: Legendary
  • Weight: 2 slots
  • Bonus: +4 to rolls involving prediction
  • Effect: Once per day, you can alter a single die roll by +/- 2.

Numenera & Cypher System

  • Type: Cypher
  • Level: 6
  • Effect: Grants the user Asset for any decision-making or predictive rolls for the next 28 hours.

Pathfinder 2e

  • Type: Invested, Worn
  • Level: 14
  • Price: 16,000 gp
  • Effect: Once per day, force a re-roll on any d20 roll (yours or someone else’s) and choose the better outcome.

Savage Worlds

  • Type: Relic
  • Cost: 3 Bennies
  • Effects: Provides the “Calculated Risk” Edge for free while in possession of the item. Once per session, can alter a roll favorably or unfavorably.

Shadowrun

  • Type: Magical Focus
  • Force: 6
  • Activation: 12
  • Effect: Allows the user to foresee probable outcomes, providing +3 dice to any roll involving decision making or prediction.

Starfinder

  • Type: Hybrid Item
  • Level: 10
  • Price: 18,000 credits
  • Effect: Once per day, grants a re-roll on any skill check.

Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay

  • Type: Arcane Tome
  • Rarity: Legendary
  • Effects: Provides a +30 bonus to any Intuition or Lore checks involving the prediction of events. Once per session, can use “Read Omens” without spending Resilience.